I have been building new homes and developing land in the Austin market for decades and built over 7000 homes and over 10,000 lots. I have seen several cycles and I hate to say it but this cycle is different.
Historically, finished lots have represented about 20% of the home price so a $160,000 home would be built on a $32,000 finished lot. Developers were generally able to pay about the same price for an acre as they could sell a finished lot for a homebuilder. Less than 10 years ago raw land residential land in Leander was $25 – 30K per acre and home prices were around $160,000 average.
Today, land prices have risen to $50-70K per acre and finished lots are selling for $50-75K each. Expect new home prices to hit $250 -350 very soon even in sleepy little Leander.